The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) heralds what could be the most transformative technological revolution in human historyWhile it promises to accelerate societal progress, it also raises the grim specter of job losses for countless individualsThis situation bears the hallmarks of not merely structural unemployment, but a broader and more alarming trend - a reduction in overall job opportunities across various sectors.
Historically, some have drawn comparisons between the impact of AI and that of the Industrial Revolution, claiming that technological advancements in machinery did not lead to mass unemployment, but rather created a plethora of new job opportunitiesProponents of this view suggest that displaced workers simply need to retrain and acquire new skills to reintegrate into the workforce.
For a long time, I too held this belief, viewing it as a logical outcome in the evolution and advancement of humanityHowever, upon further reflection, I have come to see this perspective as overly optimistic.
This optimistic outlook reflects a flawed historical philosophyIt is erroneous to straightforwardly project future developments based on past experiences or a simplistic interpretation of history's patterns.
Indeed, history is not a mere repetition of itself, and the relevance of historical experiences can often be called into questionA sounder approach to understanding our present and future is through a careful analysis of contemporary circumstances.
Prior to the Industrial Revolution, human society experienced an extended period marked by limited productivity; the economy and social development were sluggish, often trapped in continuous cycles of stagnationIt was only in the 18th century that the Industrial Revolution catalyzed a monumental leap in productivity.
Before this upheaval, the economy was primarily agrarian, capable of producing only basic necessities
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The successful advancement of the Industrial Revolution annihilated certain outdated industries and professions while simultaneously giving rise to an explosion of new business models and job types, often reaching tenfold or even hundredfold increases.
The advent of new industries and a dramatic increase in material wealth allowed industrialized nations to not only absorb the agricultural workers ousted by obsolete sectors but also created an overwhelming demand for even more laborThis phenomenon was a significant contributor to the population explosion following the Industrial Revolution.
Thus, for over two centuries post-Industrial Revolution, global population figures have consistently risenThe technological revolutions birthed a vast array of emerging professions, continuously stimulating widespread demand for laborThis trajectory persisted right into the era defined by information technology.
Currently, aside from developed regions like Western Europe, North America, and advanced East Asian economies that have transitioned into post-industrial societies, many parts of the world remain entrenched in various stages of industrialization, with some areas still in pre-industrial phasesHence, the global process of industrialization continues to be a vital factor for ongoing population growth, which will stabilize only once industrialization is predominantly complete across the globe.
In the aftermath of the Industrial Revolution, while machines started taking over manual tasks, the economy still heavily relied on human labor across all sectors of industry and servicesThis reliance rooted in human labor meant that previous industrial transitions did not lead to widespread job displacement; rather, they fostered significant job creation.
However, entering the age of information technology has brought about a dramatic shift.
The developed nations that completed their industrialization processes are now transitioning into post-industrial societies dominated by information technology, a trend that has become distinctly pronounced since the dawn of the 21st century.
Information technology, characterized by advancements in computing and internet capabilities, has deeply transformed human production and lifestyle
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The pervasive application of emerging technologies and automation has significantly decreased the dependence on human labor.
The inevitable result of this trend is that society will no longer require such a large population.
Consequently, in the 21st century, developed countries are generally grappling with declining birth rates and even negative population growthSome countries are only managing to maintain a nominal increase through the continuous influx of immigrants.
Moreover, as humanity transitions from the era of information technology into an intelligent age, this trend of declining population figures is likely to intensify.
The number of new jobs created by AI will fall drastically short of the industries and professions it will eradicateThis is because the primary aim and ultimate outcome of intelligence-driven advancements are to wholly replace human labor.
Whether in traditional sectors being reformed by automation or within new industries spawned by AI, the reliance on human workers will significantly diminish, becoming a defining characteristic of the new landscape.
As a result, we will witness a gradual decrease in population, which could accelerate as the intelligence revolution deepens.
This phenomenon will initially manifest in leading economies and will subsequently spread to all developed nations, and as industrialization accelerates and transitions in different regions to the age of intelligence, developing and underdeveloped countries will inevitably be drawn into this trend, ultimately leading to a continued decline in global population figures once society reaches a mature intelligent phase.
It can be anticipated that as society enters the age of AI, the demand for human labor across all industries will continue to diminish, leading to a shrinkage of job opportunities and a reduction in employment at large
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Correspondingly, population figures will reflect a consistent downward trend.
Embracing the era of artificial intelligence is an unstoppable historical tide, a process of relentless advancement for humanity—a reality we cannot escapeOne stark truth emerges: a small fraction of individuals may continue to find employment, while the majority will be left without meaningful work.
Experts, including renowned figures from top tech firms, contend that a select few will engage in work directly tied to AI, while others will be sustained by societal wealth.
Yet, one must ponder: who decides who works and who does not? Who holds the reins in distributing societal wealth? Will those who do not work be deemed inferior? Will the wealth allocated to them be equitable? Can society truly tolerate such a naive notion of unearned advantages?
Picture the extreme concentration and monopolization endemic to the AI industry; this is bound to forge an institution wielding boundless power.
Unquestionably, the ultimate authority will rest in the hands of those controlling the core infrastructure and algorithms of AI.
In the future, the entity that masters AI technology will not only dominate but dictate the frameworks of our world.
Yet, whether it be capital or political power, who can guarantee that these forces will impartially and judiciously distribute societal wealth? Misuse of this power would simply transform it into a devouring monster, devouring justice and equity alike.
Thus, it's challenging to assert that such an institution will be able to maintain fairnessDue to the inherent nature of humanity, organizations do not autonomously pursue justice; their inclination often veers toward maximizing exploitationThis trajectory inevitably births a myriad of complex challenges.
Technology remains an everlasting driving force for human advancement; however, it cannot guarantee the fostering of our noble values
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